Saonois Fits The Bill For 2012 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

9/19/2012 - Most horse racing fans would agree that taking note of established race trends goes a long way into identifying the likely winner of a race, this has never been more true than with Europe’s most prestigious race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Only the foolish would ignore the trends of this race as time and time again, they prove to be a very accurate guide.

Being a Group One race aimed at producing the champion middle distance runner in Europe, it is rare to see an outsider win the race. History tells us that the favourite does not always win either but there are certain factors that seem to recur year after year with the Arc.  

The race is open to thoroughbreds aged three years of age and above and more often than not, attracts the various Classic winners from around Europe, mainly the English, Irish, French, German and Italian Derby & Oaks winners, meaning that three year olds are always well represented.

Moreover, the three year olds are treated very kindly in the race; Colts race with a weight of 8-11 while the fillies are 3lb better on 8-8. In comparison, four year olds and older fillies will race off 9-5 and 9-2 respectively. With up to an 11lb pull in the weights, It is easy therefore easy to understand why three year olds have won 15 of the last 18 renewals of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe!

Three year old Colts usually fare better than the Fillies, however, three year old fillies have won the race twice in the last four years, Zarkava in 2008 and Danedream last year. Both clearly had their additional weight allowance to thank for getting them home, although nothing should be taken away from their actual ability as both were and are outstanding Fillies.

Sadly, it looks like that there will be no three year old fillies in this year’s race but there is a multitude of three year old colts entered and one or two more waiting to be supplemented and given the trends pointing towards the three year old bias,  it is this section of the entry list where the likely winner of this year’s race will come from.

Other major trends to note are that the last ten winners had all won a race worth over £170,000 and all had won at Group One level. Additionally, all last ten winners recorded RP ratings of 121+ on last two starts and all ten were having their first start in the race. It is also worth noting that 9 of the last 10 winners had won over the "Arc" distance of 1m4f, suggesting that Derby winners in particular, whether they are the English, Irish, or French versions would all conform to this trend.

With the English and Irish Derby winner, Camelot, almost certain to miss the race, French Derby winner, Saonois, looks liek the one runner that "ticks all the boxes" and fits the bill to win the 2012 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

The JP Guavain trained runner has only had the one run since winnign the French Derby and that came at Longchamp last weekend, where he won over the Arc course and distance to land the Prix Niel by 1 1/4 lengths. This was his first attempt over 1m 4f and with more improvement likely to come on Sunday 7th October, he looks the clear pick to win the race based on trends and he's currently a 10/1 shot to do so.